مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان، جلد ۹، شماره ۲۷، صفحات ۱-۱۲

عنوان فارسی شناسایی تغییرات خشکسالی دهه‌ای در حوضه‌های آبخیز منتهی به کانون‌های گردوغبار استان خوزستان
چکیده فارسی مقاله   تمام مسائل مربوط به یک حوضه آبخیز از قبیل مدیریت آب و خشکسالی و سایر موارد باید به صورت یکپارچه، همزمان و در ارتباط با هم در غالب مدیریت جامع حوضه آبخیز مد نظر باشد. یکی از عوامل تشدید و توسعه کانون­های گردو غبار بویژه در دهه اخیر در استان خوزستان به عنوان منطقه خروجی سه حوضه آبخیز، کارون بزرگ، کرخه و زهره-جراحی، رخداد خشکسالی­های متوالی در بالادست و پایین­دست حوضه­های مذکور بوده است. به منظور ارزیابی پتانسیل و تغییرات مکانی و زمانی رخدادهای خشکسالی و ترسالی از نمایه­های خشکسالی استفاده شد. نمایه خشکسالی SPI  خشکسالی و ترسالی  را بر اساس بارش یا آورد نزولات آسمانی برآورد می کند اما با توجه به افزایش روند دما در سراسر حوضه‌های منتهی به کانون­های گردو غبار شاخص خشکسالی SPEI که درآن بارش و تبخیروتعرق ناشی از دما نیز لحاظ می­گردد محاسبه گردید. برای این منظور از در طول دوره آماری (46-1345 تا 96-1395) در قالب 5 دهه استفاده شد. این داده­ها در یک شبکه با تفکیک مکانی 44*44 کیلومتر بر اساس داده­های هواشناسی و مدیریت منابع آب کشور تهیه و بر اساس آنها برای 79 نقطه در کل سه حوضه شاخص SPI و SPEI در نرم افزار متلب استخراج و در نرم­افزار GIS پهنه­بندی شد. نتایج نشان داد؛ بر اساس هر دو شاخص دهه سوم مرطوب­ترین دوره در هر سه حوضه آبخیز بوده­است و دهه پنجم خشک­ترین دهه بوده و بیشتر مساحت هر سه حوضه را خشکسالی با شدت­های متفاوت فرا گرفته است. در دو دهه اول که دما افزایش چندانی نداشته رخداد خشکسالی براساس شاخص SPEI در کل حوضه­ها از شدت کمتری نسبت به شاخص SPI برخوردار بوده است اما در دهه آخر به دلیل افزایش دما و در نتیجه افزایش تبخیر و تعرق شدت خشکسالی براساس شاخص SPEIبویژه در پایین­دست حوضه­ها و محدوده کانون­های گردوغبار به مراتب شدیدتر بوده است
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عنوان انگلیسی Identification of decades of drought changes in watersheds leading to dust centers in Khuzestan province
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Introduction All issues related to a watershed, such as water management and drought and other matters, must be addressed in an integrated, concurrent and interconnected manner in the comprehensive management of the watershed. One of the causes of intensification and development of dust centers, especially in the last decade in Khuzestan province, has been the occurrence of successive droughts upstream and downstream of these basins, as the outlet area of ​​the three Great Basins, Great Karun, Karkheh and Jarahi-Zohre. Drought profiles were used to evaluate the potential and spatial and temporal variations of drought and wet events. SPI and SPEI drought profiles were used. In the year 2008, a severe and widespread drought occurred in Iran. A large drought cycle occurred in the three studied basins from 87-86 to 2017. Water supplies to Khuzestan dam reservoirs decrease by 65% over last decade Water reserves in Dam Province reservoirs have decreased by 58% the drought peaked in 2017. Drought indices are used to evaluate the severity, frequency, duration and magnitude of drought. One of the most important indices of meteorological drought occurrence can be divided into two SPI indices in terms of speed of occurrence of drought occurrence and SPEI in terms of accuracy and considering temperature conditions through evaporation parameter due to increasing global temperature, in detecting intensity and magnitude. Materials and methods Drought indices are used to assess the quality and quantity of drought phenomena. These indicators have different applications depending on the area and purpose of the study. To investigate the trend of decade-long drought changes in Karun watershed, 44 * 44 km grid precipitation data have been used. Since evapotranspiration values ​​are required in addition to precipitation values ​​to calculate SPEI indices. Since evapotranspiration values ​​are required in addition to precipitation values ​​to calculate SPEI indices. In this study, evapotranspiration values ​​were calculated using mean temperature data and the Torrent-White method. Temperature, evapotranspiration and transpiration data were also interpolated from daily synoptic and meteorological climatology data and Iranian Water Resources Management Meteorological and Evaporation stations. Data were extracted and analyzed for a 50-year statistical period over a 5-decade period and the SPI and SPEI drought indices for each decade. Drought and wetland indices for 79 points were analyzed by bad zone kriging method and spatial distribution of drought and wetland potentials based on two indices. Result In the first decade, according to SPI drought index, extreme and severe drought occurred at the boundary between the two surgical watersheds of Jarahi-Zohre and Karoun Basin, especially upstream of the drought basin. Large sections of the two basins have moderate to weak drought. Whereas in the Karkheh Basin, especially in the extreme wetlands, it has occurred. According to SPEI index, drought intensity in all basins is low. In the second decade, according to the SPI index, all three watersheds mostly have moderate to weak droughts, and large parts of the watersheds have normal and near-normal conditions. But according to the SPEI drought index, due to the moderating role of temperature in this decade, most parts of all three basins have normal conditions and the lower part of all three basins face weak humidity. In the third decade, all three basins face humid-to-normal conditions on both indices. In this decade, the range of dust bogs faces weak to normal-humid conditions. In the fourth decade, most of the near normal conditions are based on SPI. Large sections of the Karun and Karkheh basins have been mildly degraded based on the SPEI index, which may indicate a gradual increase in temperature and evaporation. According to the SPI index, moderate and weak droughts occupy most of the area in the fifth decade, with severe drought downstream of the Karkheh basin and in two cores upstream of the Karoun Basin at a wider level in the Zohra surgical watershed that most foci Walnut dusts are located there, due to the trend of rising temperatures in the SPEI index over a large area of ​​all three watersheds with severe and very severe drought, so that in total more than 95% of watersheds in this decade with Droughts have been facing severe and severe droughts in this decade, according to the SPEI. Discussion and Conclusion Drought is rooted in the general circulation of the atmosphere, and the effects of climate change in recent decades have increased as global warming has intensified regional-scale droughts. Increasing atmospheric CO2 causes global warming, and many studies have shown that this warming causes wider and more severe droughts. Drought is a natural and inseparable part of the climate and can occur in any climate, desert or even forest. This natural disaster is particularly severe in arid and semi-arid climates with severe water resource constraints. Exacerbates. In the first two decades when the temperature did not increase significantly, the drought events based on SPEI index in all basins were less severe than SPI index, but in the last decade due to increasing temperature and consequently evapotranspiration and drought intensity based on SPEI index in particular. Downstream of the watersheds and the range of dust bins were much more intense.
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نویسندگان مقاله فاطمه درگاهیان | Fatemeh Dargahian
, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands
موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور

زهره ابراهیمی | Zohre Ebrahimi
Jiroft University
دانشگاه جیرفت

امین فضل کاظمی | Aminfazg Kazemi
​Meteorological Organization of the country
سازمان هواشناسی کشور


نشانی اینترنتی http://deej.kashanu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-705-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
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